A Fragile Breakthrough: Understanding the New Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace Accord
A Fragile Breakthrough: Understanding the New Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace Accord
When President Donald Trump announced, “For more than 35 years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a bitter conflict that caused immense suffering… and with this Accord, we have finally achieved peace,” it marked a rare moment of optimism in one of the world’s most stubborn disputes. At a signing ceremony in Washington, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan endorsed a framework intended to end decades of hostility, most of it rooted in the long-running struggle over Nagorno-Karabakh. While the announcement made headlines, its true significance lies in the context of a turbulent history and the challenges ahead.
Historical Background — How We Got Here
The seeds of this conflict were sown in the late Soviet era. In 1988, the local authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh — then an autonomous region within Soviet Azerbaijan — sought to join Soviet Armenia. This decision ignited ethnic clashes, protests, and eventually all-out war after the collapse of the USSR in 1991.
By 1994, a Russian-brokered ceasefire had halted large-scale fighting, but Armenian forces controlled Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding Azerbaijani districts. The arrangement brought no final settlement, leaving hundreds of thousands displaced and both sides entrenched in mistrust.
The stalemate lasted until 2020, when six weeks of intense fighting — often called the “Second Karabakh War” — ended with Azerbaijan regaining significant territories. A Russia-mediated ceasefire that November introduced peacekeepers but froze unresolved issues. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a short but decisive operation that led to the surrender of the Armenian-backed administration in Nagorno-Karabakh, followed by the mass exodus of nearly all ethnic Armenians from the region. This reshaped the power balance completely, with Azerbaijan holding full control of the disputed area.
Key Points of the New Agreement
Although full texts remain confidential, official statements and diplomatic leaks suggest three central elements:
- Permanent cessation of hostilities — Both nations commit to ending armed conflict and establishing diplomatic relations.
- Opening of a transport corridor — A route connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through southern Armenia, with U.S. oversight in development and operations. This could link regional economies and create a new trade path.
- Legal and constitutional changes — Armenia is expected to amend national documents that reference Nagorno-Karabakh, paving the way for a binding treaty.
Why This Deal Happened Now
Several political and strategic shifts created the right environment:
- Military realities: Azerbaijan’s 2020 and 2023 victories left it negotiating from a position of strength.
- Russian distraction: Moscow’s focus on other conflicts reduced its influence in the Caucasus, prompting Yerevan to look for new security partners.
- Geopolitical incentives: Turkey’s support for Baku, U.S. interest in new trade corridors, and a desire to counter rival influence in the region encouraged Washington’s involvement.
Opportunities the Accord Brings
If implemented well, the agreement could:
- Reopen borders and trade routes, boosting economies on both sides.
- Encourage broader regional integration, potentially improving Armenia–Turkey ties.
- Reduce the risk of border skirmishes through direct communication channels.
Concerns and Unresolved Issues
Despite the hopeful tone, serious challenges remain:
- Displacement and cultural protection: There is no clear plan for the return or resettlement of displaced people, nor for safeguarding religious and historical sites.
- Sovereignty questions: The proposed corridor’s administration raises concerns in Armenia and has drawn opposition from Iran.
- Enforcement: Past peace deals in the region have collapsed without robust monitoring and dispute-resolution mechanisms.
Regional and Global Impact
If successful, this U.S.-mediated peace could significantly diminish Russia’s role in the South Caucasus, strengthen Turkish–Azerbaijani connectivity, and open a major East–West trade route. However, the agreement will test the patience of neighboring powers like Iran, which fears geopolitical isolation.
Final Outlook
This accord represents the most promising opening for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan in decades. But history warns that declarations alone cannot guarantee stability. The true test will come in the months and years ahead — in how both governments manage legal changes, safeguard vulnerable communities, and navigate the geopolitical ripple effects. Should they succeed, the South Caucasus could enter a new era of cooperation and economic renewal; should they fail, the region risks sliding back into familiar cycles of distrust and confrontation.
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