Pakistan–Saudi Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (Sept 17, 2025) and its likely effects on Indian foreign policy

Pakistan–Saudi Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (Sept 17, 2025) and its likely effects on Indian foreign policy

1) What happened — the facts you need to know (short & sharp)

On 17 September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) in Riyadh declaring that an attack on one would be treated as an attack on both. 

Pakistan’s Defence Minister publicly said Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities “could be made available” to Saudi Arabia under the pact — the first on-record assertion that Riyadh might fall under a Pakistani nuclear umbrella. 

The pact was presented by both capitals as a response to growing regional insecurity (including spillover from the Israel-Hamas crisis and concerns about reliable external guarantors), and observers see it as Riyadh diversifying its security partners. 

2) Why this matters for India — the strategic logic

The SMDA alters the security geometry that India must navigate in three interlinked theatres:

1. South Asia (India-Pakistan) — the treaty raises the possibility that a bilateral India–Pakistan crisis could attract broader Gulf involvement (diplomatic, political, or even military) if Saudi leaders deem it relevant to their commitments. The explicit nuclear implications add a dangerous new vector for miscalculation. 

2. The Middle East (India-Gulf ties) — India’s deepening economic and strategic engagement with Saudi Arabia (energy, investments, diaspora politics) now needs to be managed alongside Riyadh’s security ties with Islamabad. Delhi must avoid a binary choice while protecting core national security interests. 

3. Proliferation & doctrine dynamics — the public discussion of a nuclear umbrella for a Gulf state raises proliferation anxieties across the region. India’s own nuclear posture and its messaging on NFU/credibility could be affected by this changed calculus. 

3) Short-term effects India will (and already does) pursue

1. Diplomatic outreach to Riyadh: New Delhi has publicly urged Saudi Arabia to “mind sensitivities” — a calm, transactional message designed to protect bilateral ties while signalling concern. Expect fast-paced diplomacy: FM level calls, back-channel meetings, and reassurances on energy and investment. 

2. Threat-assessment and contingency planning: India’s national security establishment will update threat scenarios, intelligence sharing with friendly partners, and force posture planning along the western front.

3. Public reassurance of energy/commerce ties: India will simultaneously emphasise that defence pacts should not derail the pragmatic India-Saudi economic partnership (oil, investments, pilgrims, expatriates).

4. Quiet signalling to partners: Delhi will likely brief key partners (U.S., France, UAE, others) to calibrate collective responses and keep strategic options open.

4) Mid-term policy adjustments India should/likely will make

Defence modernisation push: accelerate investments in missile defence, early-warning, surveillance and precision strike capabilities to reduce strategic surprise and increase deterrence flexibility.

Diplomatic balancing: expand high-level engagement with Gulf states beyond Saudi Arabia (UAE, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait) to ensure India’s influence and options in the region remain broad.

Nuclear posture messaging: maintain clarity on doctrine (whether NFU remains or is nuanced publicly) while ensuring credible second-strike and command-and-control safeguards to avoid misperceptions.

Multilateral arms control nudges: push for confidence-building and non-proliferation dialogues involving South Asia and Gulf stakeholders to limit escalatory pathways. 

5) Four plausible scenarios — what New Delhi must prepare for

Scenario A — Diplomatic containment (most likely, near-term)

Saudi Arabia treats the pact mainly as deterrence rhetoric. Pakistan’s statements about a nuclear umbrella are political signalling; no operational transfer occurs. India focuses on diplomacy, reassures energy ties, and updates force posture without any outward escalation. Outcome: Manageable tension; India retains strong Gulf relationships.

Scenario B — Security-driven regional alignment (medium probability)

Saudi-Pakistan cooperation deepens into regular joint exercises, intelligence sharing and basing agreements. Gulf states gradually create a Gulf-Pakistan security architecture. India intensifies defence ties with extra-regional partners and deepens outreach to other Gulf states. Outcome: A more polarized regional security environment; India hedges by widening partnerships.

Scenario C — Nuclear escalation risk (low but high-impact)

Credible operational arrangements emerge (formalised nuclear assurance language, dual use basing, or technical cooperation crossing red lines). Proliferation fears spike across the region, triggering recalibrations by Iran, Israel, and others. India must pursue urgent diplomatic, military and strategic signalling measures to avoid miscalculation. Outcome: Dangerous strategic instability; global non-proliferation regime under stress.

Scenario D — Multilateral crisis & mediation opportunity (opportunity case)

International pressure (from the U.S., EU, UN) and shared economic stakes push parties toward crisis-management mechanisms. India positions itself as a stabiliser and interlocutor — leveraging relationships with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Gulf states to broker de-escalation and confidence building. Outcome: India earns diplomatic credit and helps shape a new security architecture that limits zero-sum outcomes.

6) Immediate risks New Delhi must guard against

Misreading signalling: ambiguous public statements about nuclear umbrellas can be mistaken for operational commitments — increasing the risk of miscalculation. 

Diplomatic friction with Riyadh: heavy-handed Indian responses could drive a wedge in India-Saudi economic and strategic ties. 

Regional arms dynamics: the pact could spur hedging by Iran and Israel, complicating India's regional calculations. 

7) Practical policy recommendations for India (concise checklist)

1. Intensify diplomacy with Saudi Arabia — immediate ministerial contacts; secure written understandings on non-involvement in India-Pakistan disputes. 

2. Expand Gulf engagement — deepen ties with UAE, Qatar, Oman — diversify strategic and energy links.

3. Refresh deterrence posture — intelligence, surveillance, missile defence, naval presence in Arabian Sea.

4. Nuclear doctrine clarity — public reassurance to reduce misinterpretation; behind-the-scenes technical safeguards to ensure command integrity. 

5. Multilateral push — work with partners to promote transparency mechanisms (CBMs) in South Asia and the Gulf.

6. Communicate prudently — public statements that are firm but avoid alarmism to preserve room for diplomacy.

8) Conclusion — balancing prudence and agency

The Pakistan–Saudi SMDA is a meaningful regional development: it raises the strategic stakes for South Asia and the wider Middle East, especially because of public references to a possible nuclear umbrella. For India the path forward is a combination of measured deterrence, intensified diplomacy, and multilateral engagement. Delhi’s goal should be to avoid a zero-sum rewrite of regional alignments while preserving freedom of manoeuvre and securing India’s people-and-energy interests.

Sources (key reporting & expert commentary used)

AP News reporting on the pact and public statements. 

Reuters coverage on implications for the regional nuclear picture. 

Al Jazeera analysis of regional context and Gulf security concerns. 

Council on Foreign Relations background on Pakistan-Saudi security links and nuclear considerations. 

Belfer Center / Washington Institute commentary on proliferation and policy options.